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March 16, 2005

Misinformation misleading public

With the slew of polls coming out on Social Security, the finding in a recent Rasmussen Report are timely. Specifically, the level of misinformation getting through to voters is hurting Social Security reform and the pro-reform politicians. For example,

Surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports in 2005 show that between 36% and 48% of senior citizens believe their own retirement benefits will be cut by President Bush's approach to Social Security... [and] less than half (47%) of all Americans recognize that the President's plan would give workers a choice between the current program and personal retirement accounts.

So when polls such as the Washington Post ask if voters support how the President is handling Social Security, they find 35% support and 56% dissent. But those same people think Social Security is headed for a crisis (71%-23%) and that major changes need to be made (67%-30%). So what major changes are popular. Well interestingly, "Would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?" garners a healthy 56% support to 41% opposition. This is PRAs in a nutshell and shows their popularity. In the Rasmussen Report, the impact of the misinformation is quantified. Specifically, The impact of these misconceptions is enormous.

When we initially ask survey respondents about the President's plan for personal retirement accounts, just 38% favor the plan and 46% are opposed. Those results have been mirrored by many other pubic opinion polls. When we ask about a plan for personal accounts that would give workers a choice and fully protect those over 55, the numbers shift dramatically--51% in favor and just 27% opposed. That represents a net change of 32 percentage points (from minus 8 to plus 24). This change takes place among all age groups, but is most dramatic among America's senior citizens. Among those over 65, just 23% say they support the President's call for personal retirement accounts and 62% are opposed. However, when asked about the proposal that gives workers a choice and fully protects those over 55, a plurality of seniors (42%) support the plan. Just 31% remain opposed. Those figures reflect a net change of 50 percentage points among senior citizens (from minus 39 to plus 11). The change is even more dramatic among seniors who initially thought the Bush plan required younger workers to leave the current program.

So the pieces of misinformation (benefit cuts for the elderly and forcing people into PRAs) are dragging support for the non-existent "President's plan" on Social Security. Methinks that as the President and his allies make the rounds explaining the details (and if media stops talking about the President's plan "losing support" and starts to talk about the details), popularity for reform will increase and Democrats are going to look foolish for standing in the way of history and yelling "Stop."

Posted by Adam Doverspike at March 16, 2005 12:02 PM | Print

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